Russia and former Soviet area

The EU-Russia Summit, which took place in Khabarovsk on the 21st and 22nd of May, was an opportunity to discuss and tackle issues such as the economic crisis, climate change and last but not least energy security. The discussions between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, President Jose Manuel Barroso, Benita Ferrero- Waldner (External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy), Baroness Catherine Ashton (Trade Commissioner) and Andris Piebalgs (Commissioner for Energy) did not go as expected. Moscow accused the EU of creating dividing lines by offering closer ties to six former Soviet republics (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine). Mr Medvedev highlighted in a press conference ‘We would not want the Eastern Partnership to turn into partnership against Russia. There are various examples. I would simply not want this partnership to consolidate certain individual states, which are of an anti-Russian bent, with other European states’.

Concerning the domain of energy, the Russian president questioned Ukraine’s ability to pay its gas stocks, proposing that it borrow from his country and the EU. In contrast, Mr Barroso stated ‘We are open to discussing new proposals, but we should rely on existing agreements. We should not question the present energy security system in Europe’.

Image: European Commission Audiovisual Service

While Georgia’s President was present, the Presidents of France, Italy, Spain, UK, Austria, Portugal, Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus were notably absent. Only Germany was the ‘bug Western player’ to support the event. The summit’s main goal was to “gather leaders from the EU Member States, EU institutions and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of Moldova and Ukraine to launch this new framework of reinforced bilateral and multilateral cooperation” in order to “lead to deepening of political and economic relations, more energy security, increased mobility and will give an additional boost to pro-democratic and market oriented reforms in partner countries.”

Source: European Commission Audiovisual Service

EU leaders reached agreement this week on the launching of a new partnership programme with six Eastern states. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine will take part in this programme, into which the EU will invest €600 million. Previous EU partnership agreements such as the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and European Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) have been praised for their effects in ensuring economic reforms and political progression in participating states. It is hoped that this will also be the case for the six above-mentioned states, particularly Belarus, whose system of government is widely regarded as more authoritarian than democratic. However, without the perspective of accession the political conditionality has proved to have little effect.

Image: www.wikimedia.org

Those were the words of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev On Friday 27 at a summit in Siberia. Russia and the EU ended 18 months of setbacks when the two parties initiated the long-delayed negotiations over a number of issue to be included in a bilateral treaty. European leaders praised Mr. Medvedev with Commission President Barroso calling his counterpart “relaxed and open”. In spite of the newfound good spirit tensions still exist on notably trade and energy issues with Russia warning the EU not to politicise the already much debated German-Russian Baltic Sea gas-pipeline. The project has seen heavy criticism from central and eastern European countries, fearful that the pipeline will serve to impose higher prices on them.

Thanks to an initiative by Poland and Sweden, the Union for the Mediterranean could soon have a little sister, the “eastern initiative” aiming at reinforcing ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The objective of the plan is to allow those states to work on a multilateral basis with the EU on issues such as migration, the environment and free trade. According to the Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski the countries involved have a “natural membership perspective”. Although Mr Sikorski probably has the greatest intentions, his declaration could be counterproductive. After all, the EU has gone from 15 to 27 states in the last 5 years and is undergoing a persistent institutional crisis. It may be a little premature to be promising membership to struggling countries such as Belarus or Azerbaijan without creating unnecessary frustration in their populations.

Mikheil Saakashvili’s government was re-elected in Georgia last week with a commanding lead over its competitors, the United National Movement winning 120 out of 150 seats in the Parliament. The victory of the pro western president has been marred with doubts on the conduct of the polls but even more importantly raises concerns about the credibility of the opposition in Georgia. The rout of the opposition has conducted to a worrying concentration of power in the hands of the government which is not exactly good news for what is still a nascent democracy.

When Brussels’ regulatory machinery last weekend ran on low steam some were still working – and making progress. Lithuania has been one of the staunchest opponents to initiating negotiations with Russia on a new strategic treaty. Especially over concerns that so-called “frozen conflicts” with Russia were threatening Moldavia and Geogia’s territorial integrity. At a meeting in Vilnius with the Slovenia Presidency last weekend a breakthrough was reached. However, after several member states made changes to the agreement at a meeting Tuesday 13 in Brussels, Lithuania objected once more and negotiations were put on hold. Nevertheless, progress is being made and the Union is one step closer to a common position on a Russia-related issue. That is good news in itself.

Sunday Russia will elect Vladimir Put….pardon, Dmitry Medvedev as its new president. Mr. Medveded is set to triumph as he enjoys a 70 per cent backing in the latest polls. The current president, Mr. Vladimir Putin, has chosen Medvedev as the candidate for the presidency of his ‘United Russia’ party. Most observers expect that once Mr. Medveded has been sworn in as the next president of Russia, Mr. Putin will take on the position as Prime Minister of Russia, which United Russia also has a claim to as a result of last autumns elections. Mr. Medveded is widely regarded as being nothing but a mere loyal puppet for Mr. Putin. Formally, the Russians will choose a new president but in reality nothing will change. With this move, Putin can circumvent the Russian constitution, which stipulates that any president can only hold office for two consecutive periods. And with this move, Putin once more makes a mockery of Russian democracy.

Not surprisingly, the first effects of the Kosovar call for independence have already materialized. The two Georgian regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, have already declared that they intend to follow the example of Kosovo by declaring unilateral independence. Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, has several times stated that granting Kosovo its independence on a unilateral basis would be the equivalent of opening Pandora’s Box. Mr. Putin foresees that the international community will see a chain reaction with several regions declaring their independence. Regardless of what one thinks of Mr. Putin’s foreign policy in general, the future could very well prove the Russian President right.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe which had been planning a mission to observe the March 2nd presidential elections in Russia has decided to cancel the operation altogether. The Russian authorities proved to be rather unhelpful in the process. They restrained access to the OSCE team before the day of the elections and then refused to grant visas to several OSCE staff members “The point is that Russia is not willing to provide the absolute minimal conditions necessary for effective observation,” according to an official from the European organisation. When trying to engage in a dialogue about the conditions of the mission, the OSCE was accused of giving an ultimatum, which was intolerable in the eyes of the Russia government. After actually banning all serious candidates other than Medvedev, the agent of the Kremlin, Putin has just closed the doors to neutral observers. This outcome, if predictable, is nonetheless worrying as it indicates that Russia has no willingness to conduct elections even remotely complying with the standards of a modern democracy.

Tension is rising between the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and the Russian authorities in the run-up to the March 2nd Presidential elections. The European organisation which had already complained that the number of observers authorized on the day of the polls have been limited to 70 by Moscow is now contemplating cancelling the mission altogether unless 20 observers are allowed on Russian territory as soon as this week. According to a spokesperson for the OSCE the organisation needs to observe the situation over several weeks and cannot make a sound assessment of the proceedings by being on the ground just on Election Day. This controversy is likely to undermine the credibility of the elections, but chances are Putin and co just don’t care as they know World leaders will not hesitate one second to roll out the red carpet for the new Russian president as soon as he reaches power…

There is more bad news from Russia. The week saw Russia announce that it will withdraw its participation from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty which restricts the number of weapons of the Warsaw Pact and NATO. The reason outlined by Mr. Putin is the “muscle-flexing” of the NATO with which the Russian president referred to US plans to construct a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. With words reminiscent of the good old Cold War, Mr. Putin retaliated that he had asked the strategic nuclear forces of Russia “to raise their combat readiness”. Regardless whether one sympathizes with the Russian criticisms of the plans of a missile defence system, it is preoccupying to observe an increasingly authoritarian Russia in the hands of Mr. Putin, and older generations feeling one step closer to what they thought were the long gone years of the Cold War.