Jane O’Mahony is lecturer in European Politics at the University of Kent. Previously, she was a Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the University College Dublin. In her research she focuses on EU policy making and on Ireland’s relationship with the EU and she recently published a monograph on “Ireland and the European Union” together with Brigid Laffan.

The Euros : Ireland joined the EU with great enthusiasm in 1973 and since then membership helped the country to modernize and become known as the Celtic tiger. However, this economic miracle now turned into a deep crisis. How would you describe the general mood in Ireland right now ?

Jane O’Mahony : Very pessimistic. People realize the economic success of the Celtic tiger years are over and there is considerable worry about the future. Also, politicians are very much criticised in terms of their capacity to deal with the current economic situation facing the country.

The Euros : What is the attitude of the Irish towards the EU – and how has it changed over time ?

Jane O’Mahony : When Ireland joined the European Economic Community in 1973 a referendum was held in 1972 and it was overwhelmingly in favour of accession – 83% voted in favour, with a turnout of 70%. There was a little bit of a decline in support in the 1980s, partly because of the difficult economic situation domestically at the time. Particularly from the late 1980s and early 1990s, support for the Irish EU membership steadily increased to where, three or four years ago, it was, together with Luxembourg and the Netherlands, the highest in Eurobarometer polls – this is because the EU has meant good things for Ireland. There has been a very slight decline since then, but between the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in June 2008 and now, there has been another shift evident in some opinion polls as people realize that Ireland cannot go it alone in the future.

The Euros : It seems to be a bit of a paradox that even at the time of the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, 73% of the Irish actually said they were in favour of European integration. What were in your view the main reasons why the Irish rejected the Lisbon Treaty in June 2008 ?

Jane O’Mahony : Yes, we observed the same kind of paradox with the Dutch referendum in 2005. This leads you to think that the reasons why people voted No were not always related to the Treaty itself. But whereas it is quite easy to pinpoint the reason why the Irish rejected the Treaty of Nice in 2001 – a lack of knowledge – this is less obvious for the June 2008 referendum. 22% of those polled by telephone immediately after the vote said there was a lack of information. There was this very persuasive slogan “If you don’t know, vote No !”. Generally speaking, there was a climate of fear and also of anger against the government. But then, there is a myriad of other reasons. Some of them had nothing to do with Lisbon whatsoever. Some of them were domestic, some related to the loss of Irish identity and fears of a small state in an enlarged EU. The loss of the Irish Commissioner played a role, because in Irish politics there is a strong link between representatives and their constituency – for cultural reasons and also due to the electoral system of proportional representation by single transferable vote. Then there were other spurious issues that the government tried to address, but rather unsuccessfully, e.g. issues such as the Treaty of Lisbon would bring in gay marriage, euthanasia and abortion. The Libertas organisation was very effective in campaigning on the issue of corporation tax, which was seen as one of the key contributing elements to the Irish economic success of the Celtic tiger years. So there were plenty of reasons for the Irish No.

The Euros : Why was the No campaign so much stronger than the Yes campaign ?

Jane O’Mahony : Two things really. In Ireland the electorate is not very well informed about the European Union, as evidenced by objective and subjective knowledge indicators. Opponents to the treaty were able to cherry pick and attack various aspects of the Treaty, capitalising on voter ignorance. In the face of low levels of knowledge, voters believed these arguments as they tapped into their own fears for the future. At the same time, No campaigners ran very effective campaigns with a long lead-in time, that is to say, the Yes campaign took a long time to get going. Indeed, in some ways you had a sort of withdrawal of the political elites who wanted a Yes vote. They didn’t campaign, and when they did campaign, they were on the backfoot as they were always responding to points the No campaigners raised – and people just didn’t believe them. So there was this whole dynamic of the referendum. A political vacuum emerged in between the time the then Prime Minister Bertie Ahern stepped down as Prime Minister/Taoiseach and new Taoiseach Brian Cowen took over. So in the end you had a campaign of about three weeks, which is not enough to explain an admittedly complex Treaty. People thought they were being asked to take it on trust, but they were not prepared to take it on trust.

The Euros : Would you say Declan Ganley and his Libertas movement played a decisive role, which led to the No vote ?

Jane O’Mahony : Yes I would. Libertas ran a very effective campaign. Although Declan Ganley said he complied with all of the Standards in Public Office obligations relating to campaign spending etc., there were questions in the media about the money he put into the campaign, where it came from and how much was spent. Anecdotal estimates at the time said Libertas put 1.3 million Euros into it.

The Euros : Is it true that the Irish expected to get a “better deal” by voting No on the first occasion ? Does No really mean No in Irish referenda ?

Jane O’Mahony : Yes. Many in the electorate didn’t realise that there would be negative consequences for Ireland in voting against the Treaty. They had the experience of Nice where they could go back again to get a better deal or at least reassurances on certain matters. Campaigns in Ireland are conducted using considerable political postering and there was much more postering from the No side than from the Yes side, and posters from the No side were more provocative and visible. Sinn Fein in particular campaigned on the slogan “Vote No for a better deal”.

The Euros : What do you make of the concessions the Irish government negotiated after the No vote ?

Jane O’Mahony : The main substantive concession is the keeping of the Irish Commissioner. The other concessions that the Irish are currently negotiating relate to issues that have already been safeguarded by the Irish negotiators in successive treaty negotiations, such as neutrality. Even though the Irish Foreign Minister and others made a big effort to explain that Irish neutrality was safe already, that there was no issue of abortion being brought in or of the Irish tax system being changed, etc. people didn’t believe them. So the current declarations being negotiated by the Irish government and Irish diplomats should reassure the Irish electorate in a future referendum campaign.

The Euros : Taking all this into account, do you think the Irish will vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty when they are asked for a second time ?

Jane O’Mahony : The signs are better than before. It was very clear early on in the Lisbon 1 campaign that a No vote was a distinct possibility. This time around, people realise they can’t go back, this is it now. If the Irish say No again, they stop the Treaty. And then it is all tied up with the economic situation. There is a huge dissatisfaction with the current government. But it is possible to argue that this may not affect the referendum in a negative way. One week before the Lisbon 1 referendum, opinion polls actually showed a high level of satisfaction with the government, so the connection is not obvious. The Lisbon 2 result will depend on whether the government runs a very effective campaign, together with the support of the majority of the remaining political parties. There will probably also be an element of “in or out”, i.e. of Ireland’s continued membership of the European Union, in the campaign itself as well. Even so, Libertas and other groups will campaign against the Treaty and they cannot be discounted.

The Euros : When will the second referendum take place ?

Jane O’Mahony : Some say the referendum should take place as soon as possible to put Ireland to a good standing within the EU. But I think the government wants to get through the local and European elections and then run the referendum in October.

The Euros : What do you expect to become the main issues in the campaign for the European Parliament elections in Ireland ?

Jane O’Mahony : It will be the economy I think. Traditionally, European elections are second order elections, so they are fought on national issues and not European ones. Declan Ganley wants to use it as a proxy for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty across the EU. I don’t think that will happen in Ireland. It will be a vote of confidence in the current government, and they don’t expect to do well.

The Euros : Is Libertas credible as a pro-European party which opposes the Lisbon Treaty ?

Jane O’Mahony : Declan Ganley constantly re-iterates in the European media that he is pro-European. When you read what he says about the EU, he is critical of many aspects of the EU, which according to certain academic definitions, does constitute being eurosceptic. When you take his points to their logical conclusion, some of them are actually very advanced and would take the EU further towards a federalist direction. But then his main message is populist, he rails against European bureaucrats and doesn’t recognize that decisions in Brussels, especially in the Council, are taken by nationally-elected politicians. In addition, the people that he has surrounding himself, they generally tend to be critical of or dissenting voices to the EU.

The Euros : Provided the Irish say “Yes to Lisbon” later this year, will the Lisbon Treaty then pass ? Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic have not completed ratification so far either.

Jane O’Mahony : We cannot be sure, indeed. In the immediate aftermath of the referendum in June 2008 it seemed to be very clear that Ireland was going to be the only stumbling block, but now we have to wait and see how things will evolve in the Czech Republic and with the German Constitutional Court. But the Polish President said he would sign the Treaty once everybody else has done so.

The Euros : How will the Lisbon Treaty change the EU ?

Jane O’Mahony : Perhaps psychologically. It will be the end of a period of over eight years of wrangling over the institutions. People just want to get on with things and tackle the big issues that are currently facing the EU – with Lisbon they can do this, even if it is not a ‘big bang’ treaty. Lisbon will streamline decision-making, it will open up new priorities, such as climate change and energy, and psychologically it will allow the EU to move on after the failure of the Constitutional Treaty in 2005.